The “Augmented Reality” hype train continues to gain momentum, and like the hackneyed idiom goes, where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Below are a few tips we think you should keep in mind when doing your research on mobile augmented reality apps, the design of your own mobile marketing initiatives, and, for you futurists, your predictions about the Mobile Internet & Smart Phone Tsunami . . .
Nearly everything you see today that is being called Augmented Reality is a mashup of 2 things: the GPS (or non-GPS location identifier like WiFi or cellular triangulation) on the phone and 3rd party data APIs (e.g., Wikipedia, Google Maps, Yelp, eBay). From now on, we’re going to refer to this set of mobile applications as AR Lite apps (thanks to Pongr’s Zach Cox).
The use of the camera (or open video stream) is currently mostly about style and interface. Some mobile phones (iPhone 3GS and some Android handsets) are using compass capabilities to provide a general sense of perspective in the app – that’s what separates an LBS enabled mobile app from this newer set of AR Lite apps.
The compass is what tells the AR Lite application where the user is “looking” – not the camera.
If you want a granular sense of perspective via the camera, you should use image recognition. Like the AR Lite apps, a full-blown image recognition enabled mobile app is not magic (although it is magical and full of science), so you should learn more about this topic on its own. Pongr is happy to help.
There are major wireless network and video compression matters that need to be fully addressed/rolled-out before mobile application developers will be able to utilize an open streaming camera view for the purposes of search (whether general purpose or vertical specific). From a practical perspective, it doesn’t make sense to rely on high-quality streaming video for search just yet. It will in in a few years though.
We are likely to see a bifurcation among the AR Lite apps and image recognition based applications before we see them blend into a fully-functional, mass marketed video type of search. The blend will occur only after the major carriers (or even just one) rolls out 4G/LTE networks. Even then, it remains to be seen what the data capabilities will be.
It is possible, if not likely, that carriers will have a heavy hand in controlling this next generation of mobile search because the consequences to their network assets (and profitability) are significant. We may see alternative data infrastructure providers/sources, but that’s another topic altogether. And, of course, in the U.S. and other countries, the network neutrality issues will greatly shape what happens with mobile video based search.
I was having dinner the other night at Eastern Standard with a former executive of Nokia’s Ovi Store and, among other things (like hamburgers & beer), we were discussing the rapid pace of change in core enabler technologies that will cause significant shifts in how and where mobile application developers decide to spend their time and creativity. For example, Android is becoming a superstar because developing on it is so much richer than, say, Symbian. The iPhone, darling developer platform of 2008 and 2009, offered economic hope and independence to developers, but now that the data reports are saying it’s a lot harder to monetize than previously thought, developers will be susceptible to new “platform” enticements from other device makers and wireless carriers. Just wait and see what unfolds in 2010.
It’s a safe bet that Android is only going to grow in reach, features, and overall attractiveness to both consumers and developers. Motorola, for one, is clearly making bold bets on Android. Samsung is probably not far behind. Thus, the implications of developers supporting Android to the detriment of Symbian, or vice versa (not really, though, right?), will have significant impact on the strategic choices of carriers, handset makers and the myriad of others who throw their weight in any given direction depending on what the development community, a strong, albeit often disconnected force in mobile, does.
Now, in fairness to Nokia, they’re far from betting the farm on Symbian. In fact, a few months ago when Nokia sold its “Professional Services” arm of Symbian to Accenture, I suspected, for a fleeting moment, that it could be a harbinger of something unthinkable – the Fins supporting Android (even though the ostensible reason for divestiture was to create a sense of distance from Symbian and encourage its wider adoption in the face of Android et al.). That’s probably not going to happen, but things can change in the blink of a hurricane’s eye in the mobile hemisphere, and like many mutating species of historical significance, there are often strange bedfellows that are hard to explain.
Enter Maemo, an open source development platform powering a growing number of future devices including Nokia’s tablet initiatives. Could Maemo be poised to take over Symbian’s place? Supporting 400 million devices sure would be easier if there weren’t so many unique gotchas left over from an OS of a bygone era. Not that retrofitting Nokia devices will ever happen, but with strong distribution assets around the world (in particular India and China – the mega Mobile Internet growth markets by any measure), it would certainly make sense to pump those channels with an OS ready for the future rather than one that dwells on the past. Supporting Maemo across the board might make a lot of sense to the anti-Android crowd.
If that happens, or rather, when that happens, Android and Maemo could be the dueling mobile developer platforms. In the meantime, the iPhone hype machine is a monster in terms of media sex appeal, but with an app store process under increasing heat from disgruntled, disenchanted developers, we’re all likely to see more experimentation in other mobile combinations. RIM and the glorious BlackBerry (my Internet device of choice) remain the corporate incumbent, but what happens when Microsoft Office running on Maemo gets a swell of Nokia-Microsoft-Intel marketing dollars? That’s a powerful triumvirate. Could they all be friends long enough to cement a global throw-down in hardware, software and ancillary, but huge markets like mobile marketing and mobile payments? Would it be too risky a course (alienating valuable partners) considering that PC makers like Dell, Toshiba, Lenovo and Samsung are making fast inroads in the quasi-handset device space like netbooks and beyond? WinTel managed to stay above the fray for the last few decades, but that was before the dawn of entirely virtual computing, cloud-based storage, and nearly 100% mobile access for regular, if not first-time video & picture hungry Internet carnivores.
Looking out over the horizon and trying to determine the places where new technologies and awesome infrastructure improvements meet is no perfect science, but it helps to keep a sharp eye on some of the core innovative B2B players that make the mobile world hum. Huawei, Cisco, Alcatel, Qualcomm, Ericsson, just to name a few, are all doing exciting things for the circulatory and nervous systems of Mobile (the ROYAL MOBILE). Equally important are the legions of startups cranking away on next-gen enabler technologies. Additionally, carriers around the world are bracing for more data tsunamis as smart phone penetration rates race upward. We’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg in terms of video and image data crisscrossing Mobile2Mobile, Mobile2Social, and Mobile2Search.
I’ve been keeping an eye on a few areas and companies that will serve as enabling components to future mobile apps, and of course, Pongr is committed to visual recognition as a search technology that will enhance the user experience for all sorts of mobile initiated queries. In no particular order, here are a few noteworthy elements that are worth considering, if nothing else, when planning a new initiative into mobile applications: bandwidth, data pricing plans, network portability, handset hardware (screens, keypads, cameras, chipsets, etc.), the FCC and “Net Neutrality” issue, and the wedging of social networks like Twitter and Facebook into B2C marketing efforts.
There’s a lot of permutations that can and will occur when it comes to device makers, carriers, applications, new technologies, old technologies applied at the edge of new spaces, and business decisions to squeeze the most value of out existing assets. The following two clips are not exactly 100% tied to mobile, but they’re both illustrative examples of software, hardware and infrastructure advances that will shape the way the world connects. And frankly, both of these companies, Verizon and Google, are leaders in all aspects of mobile – so this gives some insight into the level of commitment and determination each has in growing significant business opportunities – as well as delivering substantial value to end consumers/users/customers.
The “Augmented Reality” hype train continues to gain momentum, and like the hackneyed idiom goes, where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
